REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA- the US elections 2012 focuses on President Barack Obama's performance as economy is the top issue among other things. The visiting Professor Burdett A Loomis from Kansas University, United States, said that during a workshop on US elections on Monday.
"Mitt Romney (Republican) is qualified candidate for but as the incumbent Obama goes unchallenged, he does not have any contender within Democrat. On the other hand, September 2009 was a bad news for Obama, as it was the greatest crisis faced by the US since Great Depression. Then this elections is about judging Obama,” Loomis said.
Furthermore, negative advertisement towards Obama made the campaign as a nasty session, Loomis said. This elections is also more polarized than any other elections in the last 100 years and involves a huge amount of money in campaign, up to billions USD. While most Republicans simply want to defeat Obama and they unite around that goal.
In 2008 elections, Obama was successful in reaching out to young people -which always the hardest group to get attracted to politics- because Obama spoke about “hope”. But in 2012 elections, Loomis predicted the situation would be different since Obama was judged by his performance, especially in economy which recorded of high rates on unemployment.
As of July or four months before elections, the prediction focused on whether job approval is more than 50 percent and the unemployment is less than 8 percent or tends to lower. If Obama succeeds on both points, the he has a great chance to win. But if he fails, then Romney will potentially take over the presidential seat.
The key issue, Loomis reminded, was again in economy. Some other issues including Iraq, Afghanistan, did not have much influence the debate between two candidates. As in Palestine issue, whoever the winner will not change the US position towards Palestine or Israel. “Do not be sinical, but the issue of Israel and Palestine is always a part of domestic politics in the US,” Loomis noted.
So far the most powerful lobby groups in the US are still Israeli’s lobby group and National Riffles Association. “Money for lobbying is far more expensive than elections fund. But they (the lobby groups) do not spend much money on elections,” he said.
Loomis predicted that the turn out to lower than 2008 elections which was around 62 percent, as negative advertisement against the incumbent candidate draw people less enthusiastic on going to the ballots.
The Muslim population, he said, outnumbered the Jewish population in the US. But, Loomis explained, the Muslims did not play influential role in shaping the American politics.
In the end, Loomis concluded that Obama could still reclaim the presidential seat in 2012 elections with a chance of 65 percent. “Some may predict the chance is slightly 50-50. But I believe he gets more than that,” he said.
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