REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, ANKARA - Tayyip Erdogan is set to secure his place in history as Turkey's first popularly-elected president on Sunday, but his tightening grip on power has polarized the nation, worried Western allies and raised fears of creeping authoritarianism.
Erdogan's core supporters, religious conservatives, see his likely rise to the presidency as the crowning achievement of his drive to reshape Turkey. In a decade as prime minister, he has broken the hold of a secular elite that had dominated since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern republic on the ruins of an Ottoman theocracy in 1923.
Opponents see him as a modern-day sultan whose roots in Islamist politics and intolerance of dissent are taking Turkey, a member of the NATO military alliance and European Union candidate, ever further from Ataturk's secular ideals.
Erdogan could, aides have said, serve two presidential terms and rule to 2023, the 100th anniversary of the secular republic. Such symbolism is not lost on a leader whose passionate speeches are frequently laced with references to Ottoman history.
"On the assumption that Erdogan wins, what we’re going to have is the beginning of a new era," said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Until now, Turkish presidents have been chosen by parliament but under a new law, the three candidates will face the national electorate as they compete for a five-year term.
Electoral rules ban the publication of opinion polls in the immediate run-up to the vote, but two surveys last month put Erdogan's support on 55-56 percent. This is 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, and enough to secure the simple majority needed to win in the first round.
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