REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA - The majority of responses from participants polled at Fitch's annual Jakarta credit briefing showed a positive and upbeat view of the economy and business environment in 2014, even with elections due later in the year.
They were asked a series of 11 questions about the Indonesian economy, reform, and developments over the next five years. Two-thirds of respondents rejected the labeling of Indonesia as one of the "fragile five" economies, which concurred with views expressed by Ashley Taylor, a World Bank economist, in his presentation, and remarks in the keynote speeches by Bambang Brodjonegoro, Vice Minister of Finance, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, and Mulya Siregar, Deputy Commissioner, Indonesia Financial Services Authority.
World Bank economist, Ashley Taylor explained that 50 percent of respondents answered their optimism on IDR against USD after experiencing a significant slowdown during 2013, while 42 percent of them saw that IDR would improve from the current level.
About two-thirds of participants were confident that Indonesia would accelerate infrastructure development over the next five years. As for structural reforms, even though nearly 60 percent of participants felt that recent regulatory developments would negatively impact investment, a hefty 82 percent of them felt that Indonesia would continue to make significant progress in reforms over the next five years.
"About 87 percent of respondents believe that corruption and transparency issues will continue as the main topic of discussion," Managing Director Head of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings Group, Andrew Steel said on Monday.
In the banking sector, although nearly 60 percent of the participants felt that complying with proposed Basel III capital regulations would not prove to be too onerous for Indonesian banks, a similar ratio 58 percent felt that Indonesian banks would not outperform their 2013 results in 2014.
This optimism spilled over into the final question where 71 percent of participants indicated that they felt that Indonesia (BBB-/Stable) would receive another credit rating upgrade in the next 12-18 months. As all three international ratings agencies currently have a stable outlook on Indonesia's foreign currency ratings, an upgrade in the next 12-18 months would appear unlikely.
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