Analysis on Attempted Suicide Bombing Attack in Medan

By: Ahmad S *)

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID - Ivan Armadi Hasiguan, an 18-year-old, was carrying out a backpack and anaged to enter the inside hall of Saint Joseph Catholic church in the crowded area in Medan, the city of North Sumatera on Sunday morning 28/8. None likely to be suspicious at him, since his face shape is strongly “bataknese” as well as his appearance which fits to be a member of a congregation. Pretending to attend the Mass, the teenage sat on a chair next to a worshipper who saw him like “fidgety the whole time” during the service.

Then, suddenly there was a small explosion like fireworks coming from his backpack. “Because of the weakness of the explosion, he was caught, so he got up and went to the alter, going after the priest while wielding sharp weapons” said Vero, another worshipper who witnessed the incident as cited from the Jakarta Post. The 60-year-old priest identified as Reverend Albert Pandiangan sustained a minor injury to his hand, whereas the attacker was also injured after restrained by other church-goers.

From evidences the Police found in the venue, there was a “hand-drawn Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) symbol” along with the assailant ID. The Police had also found at least three small pipe bombs with mesiu powder spilled on the floor. Other things the Police took as evidences from the incident location are an axe, a knife, a battery and some cables. At the house of the perpetrator, the security officials had also searched for any bomb-making materials. Now, Ivan Armadi has been detained and being interrogated by the police to gain further informations.

Its been clearly seen that, the would-be suicide bomber attack was totally failed, the bombs in his vest failed to explode, and the perpetrator got caught. However, there is something interesting for me, the Islamic State flag one. Despite the police has stated that it remains unclear if the suspect is affiliated with a terror cell, yet still working to investigate the potential links, I personally found it awkward. Generally speaking, terrorists don’t leave trace behind which would only help the Police tracking them. This is in particular when we are talking about professionals terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. However, in some cases of terrorist attack, the police sometimes find signs or symbols indicating connections of the attack to one particular terrorist group such as ISIS. The purpose is clear, to show existence of the organization and its movement.

I examine three scenarios that could possibly be the motives or the intellectual actor behind the attempted bomb attack in Medan last Sunday. First, the incident has link to ISIS/ISIL, in other words ISIS behind the attack. The boy communicated with ISIS and being recruited through the Internet. He then got command to plan an attack and asked to follow the instruction, including carry out ISIS symbol. Again, the aim is to show ISIS existence. Second, it is a “false flag attack” designed by a certain group or power, with the purpose of creating certain situations. It could be an intelligence operation, either state or non state actor whose capabilities enable them to do so. Third, the “lone wolf” Ivan Armadi independently conducting the attack and being inspired by a terrorist group's ideology but not under its operational control. I believe he has been influenced by ISIS’s ideology and concept on jihad. None order him, rather than he believes that his action is a form of jihad, as carried out by two men - claimed to be members of Islamic State - who stormed a church in French last month causing the death of the 84-year-old French priest.

It is important to know that, “terrorist attacks are intended to have a psychological impact far outweighing the physical damage the attack causes”, cited from Stratfort.com. By causing panic and hysteria among the targeted population or audience, allowing the perpetrators of terrorist attacks to obtain a maximum return on their physical effort. Thus, the terrorist attacks are aimed mainly for political purposes.

The incident in Medan has added the list of terrorist attacks in the country this year. On 5th July, just a day before Idul Fitri celebrations, the Surakarta police headquarter being targeted by a suicide bomber despite none had been killed except himself. Similar to the Medan attack, the assailant allegedly carried a symbol indicating support for Islamic State. Since there has been an exclamation from ISIS to conduct more attacks during Ramadan and after, Indonesia security and intelligence authorities have increased operations across the country, yet the attack still occurred. But that is not the case.

Identifying the terrorist plan particularly to identify the exact time and location is not an easy job. It is more difficult when we are dealing with lone wolves, as they are independent, insulated and autonomous cells. It is therefore, the security officials should immediately reveal the motives behind the Medan attack and unveil the potential links between the perpetrator, Ivan Armadi, to any terrorist groups which is allegedly Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL).

*) The author an observer on political issues, a researcher in Menara Institute, resides in Jakarta, Indonesia