REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) estimated the exchange rate in 2016 will reach Rp 14 thousand per US dollar. Executive Director of Indef, Enny Sri Hartati, said the balance of payments becomes one factor that influences the development of the exchange rate.

"The trade balance is likely to surplus by a decrease in imports that is faster than exports, while the services and income account are certainly negative," Enny said, in Jakarta, Thursday (26/11).

Enny said, the balance of payments depended on capital flows, such as direct investment, portfolio and others. Direct investment performance would be related to the effectiveness of government policy packages, while portfolio investment would still soar because of high domestic interest rates.

"However, portfolio investment moves following development of expectations, rumors, and interest rates," Enny added.

According to him, external factors that determined the exchange rate is the Fed's interest rate hikes. The projection of US economic improvement in turn encouraged implementation of the Fed's interest rate hikes in 2016.

"This decision will lead to pressure on the rupiah, mainly that was derived from portfolio investment flows," she explained.

Besides that, China's economy that has not improved, caused the activity of world trade, especially in world commodity demand, would not change significantly. Weakening Chinese demand provided significant impact to the growth of national exports.

Meanwhile, the flow of imports in 2016 would depend on performance of industrial sector and effectiveness of government policy package. National average of imports during January-September 2015 reached 107.94 billion US dollars.

"By paying attention to the situation predicted in 2016, then it expected the rupiah against the US dollar could reach Rp 14 thousand per US dollar," she said.

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