REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- Communication Specialist Kedaikopi Rossi Rahardjo predicts the 2024 presidential election will take place in one round. His prediction refers to provisional data from the results of the national quick count conducted by the pollsters.

“(Prediction) It was quite a round, but we haven't been able to decide on a round or two yes. This is based on incoming data,” Rossi said, in Jakarta, Wednesday (14/2/2024).

Rossi explained that the prediction was based on data from a quick count that came in at 66.55 percent as of 4:03 p.m. Results showed the number 2 presidential and vice presidential candidate Prabowo-Gibran ahead with 59.23 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the number 1 presidential and vice presidential candidate Anies-Muhaimin placed second with 23.02 percent of the vote. Then in third place, there was a pair of presidential and vice presidential candidate number 3 Ganjar-Mahfud with 17.75 percent of the vote.

The data was obtained by KAIKOPI based on information on the results of vote counting in a number of polling stations (polling stations) in 37 provinces. There is one province whose data has not yet been entered, namely West Papua Province.

Rossi added that the prediction of the one-round presidential election was also based on the provisions in Article 6A (3) and (4) of the NRI Constitution of 1945. The article stipulates that a single-round presidential election can be held on condition that the pair of presidential and vice presidential candidates get more than 50 percent of the vote with a distribution of at least 20 percent of the vote in each province and spread over more than half the number of provinces in Indonesia or as many as 20 provinces.

In the quick count, the sample used in Kopi was as many as 2,000 polling stations spread across Indonesia or 38 provinces. The sampling process is carried out randomly through the multistage random sampling method which is carried out from the constituency level (electoral district) to the ward level.

With that multilevel random draw, the quick count results have a margin of error of approximately 0.18 percent. The presidential and vice presidential elections were followed by three pairs: Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar as sequence number 1, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka number 2, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md. sequence number 3.

According to Commission Regulation No. 3 of 2022, the recapitulation of the national vote in the 2024 election is scheduled to take place from February 15 to March 20, 2024.

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