REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, Jakarta---The Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) urges the entire community to be aware of the potential for extreme weather during the transition (pancaroba) from the dry season to the rainy season.

“Extreme weather is potentially huge during the transition season. Starting from heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds and hail,” said BMKG Head, Dwikorita Karnawati during the final virtual seminar as quoted from bmkg.go.id website, Monday (30/10/2023).

Dwikorita said that the direction the wind blows varies greatly, so the resulting weather conditions can suddenly change from hot to rainy or vice versa. However, in general usually the weather in the morning is sunny, then during the day it begins to grow clouds, and it rains towards the afternoon or evening.

Dwikorita called the Cumulonimbus (CB) cloud usually grows in the morning towards noon, shaped like a cauliflower, its color to grayish with clear edges. However, by late afternoon, Dwikorita continued, these clouds will turn dark which can then cause rain, lightning and wind.

“Rainfall can be one of the triggers of wet hydrometeorological disasters, such as flash floods and landslides. Therefore, to the people living in the hills prone to landslides, we appeal to be vigilant and cautious,” he said.

Dwikorita said, BMKG predicts the start of the 2023/2024 rainy season will generally occur in October-December 2023, which is 477 Season Zones (ZOM) or 68.2 percent. While the peak of the rainy season is generally forecast to be in January-February 2024, which is 385 ZOM (55.1%).

Compared to normal, he continued, the beginning of the Rainy Season 2023/2024 in 699 Season Zones (ZOM) in Indonesia is predicted by 446 ZOM (64%), SAMA 56 ZOM (8%), and MAJU 22 ZOM (3%), among 50 ZOM (7%) already entering the rainy season, 12 ZOM (2%) with the rainy season throughout 2023, and 113 ZOM (16%) with type 1 season all year round. While rain properties in the 2023/2024 monsoon period are forecast to be NORMAL 566 ZOM (80.9%), ABOVE NORMAL of 69 ZOM (9.9%), and BELOW NORMAL 64 ZOM (9.2%).

In addition to the community, Dwikorita also called on ministries, regional authorities, and related institutions to take mitigation measures against the possibility of hydrometeorological disasters during the rainy season, especially in regions experiencing Upper Normal (wetter than usual) monsoon characteristics. The region is predicted to experience an increased risk of catastrophic flooding and landslides.

In addition, Dwikorita added, the Local Government is expected to be more optimal in educating the public on how to deal with the risks of disasters that may occur during the rainy season as well as the importance of paying attention to early warnings.

“Local governments and related sectors are also expected to use this information of the 2023/2024 Rainfall Forecast as a reference for drawing up an Early Action plan, in order to reduce the losses that a hydrometeorological disaster can cause,” he said. 

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