REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, By Ikhwanul Kiram Mashuri

Several years ago the analysts and decision makers in the Middle East could probably easily charted the issues: the Israeli colonialism of Palestine and the development of radical groups like al Qaeda. Now, the problems in the Middle East are getting complicated. Not easy to parse geopolitical of the turbulent regions.

Borrowing the term of political observers in the media Aljazeera, Adnan Abu Amir, in the history of the Middle East has never happened split up and conflicts as severe as it is today; the splits which was then brought the countries in the region to form 'friendship' bloc’s alias coalition.

However, the names of politic, friendship or coalition were very slushy. Not permanent, including coalition in big countries such as United States (US), and Russia whom want to take the greater role of (interest) in the Middle East.

US for example. On Iraq problem, they were cooperated with Iran. But, in facing Yemen, US and Iran were on the opposite each other. US had even openly expressed its support for coalition led by Saudi Arabia to attack militia al Khauti in Yemen. Meanwhile in Syria, US and Iran sometimes were distant and sometimes were near. It might be the forms of relations between the two countries were highly dependent on agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

The same thing happens in a relationship between Egypt and Qatar. In handling the problems of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, they were opposite. But, when they were facing militia al Khauti in Yemen, both countries were joined with the coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Also, related to Hamas in Gaza. So far, Qatar continued to help fight Hamas, while Egypt isolated it. Relations of blocs or coalitions shaft between the countries in the Middle East were aim to dominate influence in the region.

First, the axis of countries which more oriented to the West/US. Namely: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the majority of Gulf countries. Especially for Egypt, the US seemed unwilling to lose the 'friendship' with the country of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, although for it must forget about the bloody incident when military took power from the Muslim Brotherhood. The US embargo against Egypt had been revoked, both economic and military.

Secondly, the axis of Iran-Iraq-Syria (Bashar Assad) -Hizbullah (Lebanon). The coalition was also supported by Russia. It was no secret that President Bashar Assad until now still survived because of Russia’s support, both military and in the international arena, among others, through the membership of Russia as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Russia seemed to want to move the 'Cold War' with the West / US to the Middle East region. This action was also to revenge against sanctions of Western countries, because Russia was supporting the group which accused by the West as Ukrainian insurgents. Also to show Russia was a great country. Greatness which was then shown when Russia hold the largest military parade in Moscow to commemorate 70 years of the victory over the Nazis in World War II.

Third, the countries shaft that have been supporting the existence of the Muslim Brotherhood: Turkey-Qatar-Hamas in Gaza (Palestine). As we all knew, these countries were very strongly criticized Egypt when the military overthrew Muhammad Mursi, the president of the Muslim Brotherhood were elected democratically. Even, then they also were 'protecting' the runaway of Muslim Brotherhood’s leaders.

Fourth, the shaft of radical groups such as al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and other hard-line organization that was now spreading in many countries. Not-only in Arab countries, but also Africa and Asia as well as Boko Haram in Africa, as well as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Fifth, the group of neutral countries. They have not support the existing shaft or newly established. Those countries namely were Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and others.

Again, blocks or shafts of the combined countries were highly slushy. Turkey, for example. The country led by President Recep Tayyib Erdogan related very well with Saudi Arabia. While the Saudi Arabia supported the Egyptian President Abdul Fattah Sisi as which until now was 'hostile' with Erdogan.

Then who or which party was taking advantage of the coalition of these countries? First, of course, ISIS and other radical groups. With the attack to militia al Khauti in Yemen, then the concentration of countries power which were members of the coalition was sucked in there. Whereas these countries, especially Saudi Arabia, the most diligent formed a coalition for the destruction of the ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Even Jordanian, which the fighter pilot had been burned alive by ISIS and has promised to take revenge, now it was also sluggish. No longer heard their fighter planes were bombarding ISIS strength bases. Western countries were only occasionally launch attacks against targets of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s state. And if they wanted to strike ISIS as they did against al Khauti in Yemen, ISIS’s power will certainly in a mess.

In other words, the coalition to destroy the ISIS was not as strong as the coalition against al Khauti. Because it could be said coalition against ISIS was half-hearted coalition. This may be because the authoritative government in Iraq and Syria was Shia. Therefore, if ISIS destroyed, in the end the shaft influence of Iran-Iraq-Syria will be stronger. This condition was apparently not wanted by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. For them the influence of Shia’s Iran was considered more dangerous than the Israeli. Therefore, ISIS and other radical organizations not expected to run out. The death of them will be long.

Second, the benefit of the Middle East today condition was Zionist Israel. Benjamin Netanahu currently re-elected as Prime Minister of Israel could quietly and comfortably sipping his morning coffee while following the news. He did not need to think hard to make a deadly strategy to face fighters of Palestinian which supported by Arab countries and Islam. He could smile to watch his enemies were fighting among themselves. He felt his country was increasingly victorious without war.

Therefore, it could be understood that in recent years the Israeli leaders refused to be invited to stand at the same height and sits at the same low with Palestinian leaders while sitting in the negotiating table. They rejected the freezing of Jewish settlement construction, releasing of Palestinian political prisoners, and, moreover, pulling its military out of the boundaries before the War 1967, if all of it used as commencement terms of negotiations with the Palestinians. The War 1967 was a war that Israel won by capturing the majority of the Palestinian territories.

That is why the peace negotiations for a year, facilitated by the US through its Foreign Affairs Minister, John Kerry, were failed miserably. With the re-election as prime minister, Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders might be more stubborn.

The development of the Middle East as it would become nuisance. Not only harms the Palestinian struggle, but also threaten the world peace.

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