By : Soedibyo *)

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, The Corruption Eradication  Commission  (KPK) in its effort  to cover up completely the  giant corruption scandal in the Government Project of Electronic  Identification Card (e-IdC) decides alleging Setya Novanto as one of the eminent defendant of this organized corruption case. This giant organized corruption which has taken place in the period of the Reform Era to have been affecting the Government   lost of  2,3  trillion rupiah. 

Setya Novanto is still free now but sooner or later he certainly would be detained in line with its legal process. Definitely it is a great challenge for the brave of KPK or otherwise KPK will lose its face. This e-IdC scandal has been definitely a serious tragedy of Setya Novanto considering he is the Chairman  of  the strong and influent Golkar Political Party, he is also the Speaker of the House of Representative and speculatively he will be assigned as one  of the possible partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election  of 2019. This  e-IdC  scandal took place when Setya Novanto was the chairman of the Golkar Party Faction of the House of Representative   in  the period of 2009-2014. 

For the long recent period Setya Novanto has been apparently considered as one of the Very Important Person of this country with a number of  crucial  records. He also considered as cunning Golkar Political Party Cadre, because he is considered as a Gokar Political Party Cadre who  had been  safe from  a number  of economic scandal happened in a number of Government Project in along with his political career. Setya Novanto was also considered as cunning but lucky Golkar Party cadre  who has been accommodated  by President Jokowi who was very angry because his name was manipulated by Setya Novanto to look for the Papuan Tembaga Pura's  share holder. 

Various Observers who likely have the  accurate observation in the case of  e-IdC Corruption scandal  are  of the opinion Setya Novanto  to be considered impossible to be safe from this criminal accusation. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)  has been believed accurately and pertinently working, anyone who is accused as defendant by KPK to have been definitely the accusation is based on strong advance evidences and accordingly finally the respective defendant will be  jailed. It is predicted the legal effort to save Setya Novanto is potentially failure. 

The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) said the decision to accuse Setya Novanto as the defendant to have no any relation with the House of Representative's Enquete on the Corrtuption Eradidication Comission  (KPK). The accusation of Setya Novanto as one of the eminent actor  of e-ICd project is not  the counter attack of KPK against the agenda of The House of Representative on the Enquete on KPK. 

Prediction to the case

The giant corruption case involving Setya Novanto is really a tragedy realizing  the general impact of this giant scandal, as various observers to be predicting :

The case is  considered  damaging   the  credible image of the Indonesian national leadership especially the Legislative Body prestigious performance.  More, analyst tend to seriously look at  the possible  impact of the case to the debacle of the political situation in the Regional  Election  in 2018,  of the General and the Presidential Election in 2019. 

Those political debacle  will be apparently starting from the internal dispute emerging among the Golkar Party members on whether or not a Special National Congress to elect the New Chairman of Golkar Party should be conducted. According to the Golkar Party Constitution Chairman of Golkar Party should be elected by the National Party Congress. In this case, Setya Novanto tend also reject to resign but transferring the political party leadership to the Daily Party Leadership Council.

This crucial situation will likely affect the problem of election of the new Speaker of the House of Representative (after Setya Novanto to be detained) and finally the political balance in the Presidential Election caused by the estimated set back of the Golkar Party  achievement in  the General Election of 2019. Golkar Party is definitely one  strong  political party expected to support President Jokowi in the Presidential Election  in 2019 together with  PDI-P, NASDEM and Hanura, while PAN, PKB and PPP are considered in uncertain position. The result of Golkar Party achievement in the Election of 2019 to be estimated low affecting the  achievement number of  Presidential Threshold  by the Government Coalition, it is estimated bellow 20 %.

All of those crucial problem resulted by the Setya Novanto tragedy  when finally Setya Novanto to be detained could be likely  anticipated as bellow :

Internally Golkar Party will potentially face the breaking dispute,  the  emergence  of the demand for the Special National Golkar Party Congress  to elect  the new  Chairman replacing Setyo  Novanto. The main  problem will be apparently that members  realize  there  is no any cadre  to be considered as  tough  and credible enough to be elected. In the mean time, it is un-avoided  his position as the Speaker of The House of  Representative should be replaced also. The post can not be vacant, should be appointed by someone  of the Golkar Party. This  situation will disturb the legislative agenda of the House of Representative.

However It could be unavoidable  if  people apparently to be  remembering  to the history of  the past,  since the House of Representative is a part of the People's Consultative Assembly  definitely  it  could be also likely the job of The Speaker of The House of Representative could be also chaired by The Speaker of The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) as  it happened during the New Order period. This  kind of  assumption could be likely caused  by  the dynamic political performance of  Zulkifly Hasan as the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly.

The most crucial situation.

Finally the most crucial situation will be likely  the Setya Novanto case might influence the situation of the Presidential Election of 2019.

The leaving of Setya Novanto as the Chairman  of Golkar Party definitely  will  make  the Government Coalition to be less optimistic to reach the Presidential  Threshold  of 20  %  as they want. The Government Coalition is mainly depending to PDI, Golkar, NASDEM, and Hanura while PAN, PKB and PPP are in uncertain position. Golkar Party become considerably weak and definitely will affect the political solidity of the Government Coalition. 

Meanwhile  the partner of President  Jokowi in the Presidential Election will become more uncertain.  It is likely Setya Novanto case  could  affect badly to  the performance of the Golkar Party and the political convenience of the country situation  until  the Presidential Election in 2019.

Accordingly it is also doubt the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to be politically strong enough to finalize the case of Setya Novanto legally, realizing the possible political move launched  by a certain strong  political interest  group which will forcefully  make the case of Setya Novanto legally stopped. It could be likely predicted what  will happen  in such situation, however to think for the worst is definitely suggested. 

TNI, The Police and the Security Unit in general are definitely out of the Political Scene, however from the security point of view it is likely  important for them to watch the development of the national political situation.

*)  Political and Security Observer.

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