REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, By: Azhari Setiawan *)

The dynamics of East Asia security and stability has become the independent variable of Japan’s strategic policy to transform its national self defense forces. The East Asia (regional) principal security challenges situate North Korea and China as serious concerns for Japan.

First challenge comes from North Korea’s Military buildup and provocative actions. The security environment around Japan has become increasingly severe as represented by nuclear and missile development by North Korea. North Korea military buildup is increasing from time to time. Regarding its ballistic missile launched on 7 February 2016 following its nuclear test on January 6, 2016, these two military actions have likely threatened East Asia stability.

Second challenge comes from China’s advancement of its military capacity without transparency, and its further activities in the sea and air space. The serious concerns for China relates to some principle strategic issues such as: 1) China’s advancement of its military capacity by its defense budget (China’s budget counted about 216 billion, much higher compared to Japan which is 45.8 billion); 2) China’s coercive behavior in Senkaku Island which caused East Asia tensions; and 3) China’s unilateral revisionist actions related to Scarborough Shoal incident and South China sea artificial islands.

The third concerns are some major trends in East Asian geopolitical dynamics such as economic ties with China, increasing assertiveness of China and North Korea, increasing engagement of the United States in the security realm, and balancing by regional states.These issues become most concerned in Japan’s self defense forces transformations.

East Asia needs a balancing pole to deter North Korea and China’s actions. As the First strategy of Japan to transform its defense forces, Japan has reinterpreted its national regulations on military forces, dubbed the Japan’s Security Bills.

Japan’s controversial security bills have passed the Upper House of the Diet, ushering in a new era in Japanese security policy that allows the country to deploy its military overseas and play a much more prominent strategic role in peacekeeping and collective self-defense. Viewed from afar, the changes may seem realistic and promising. But for Japan, in line with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s goal of Japan’s ‘proactive contribution to peace’, the move represents a significant shift in post-war defense policy away from the limited use of force and pacifist sentiment expressed to a more expansive interpretation.

Up until the passage of the 11 security bills, use of force was only permitted in the event of a direct armed attack against Japan. The government now considers the following three conditions when reaching a decision: that the attack against Japan or another country threatens Japan’s survival, that there are no other appropriate means available, and that the corresponding use of force is limited to the minimum extent necessary. The foreign strategy from Abe’s administration is proactive contribution to peace based on the principle of international cooperation, including upgrading defense cooperation with the United States. Japan also operated some diplomatic efforts to improve its relations with China and North Korea.

Potential Threats to Indonesia

Japan’s new defense policy has significant transformation in its deployment. This directly has its own impact to East Asia Stability, which potentially would spread to South East Asia. In South East Asia, there are two focus point of Japan and some major power states. They are Malacca Straits and South China Sea. By using the Malacca Straits, the Japanese petroleum Industry saves millions of Euro annually. The number of transnational organized crime in Malacca Straits has caused a big issue for the major power country such as US, UK, India, China (who also has problem in South China Sea), and certainly Japan who then want to interfere the authority on the Strait security management. This is a threat to Indonesia—not only territorial but also stability in South East Asia—if Indonesia cannot secure its own straits.

ASEAN’s position on Japan’s security policy remains unclear. As the main regional institution, ASEAN has responsibility to formulate an effective mechanism to ease tensions and protect regional stability. The ASEAN Regional Forum is the only forum that can make China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea are willing to sit in the same table and discuss. However, ASEAN itself has problems on the cohesion of its member nations, which has recently been weak, especially when dealing with the major powers related to Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam relations with China. Cohesiveness is ASEAN’s primary means of retaining stability in the region. Without it, ASEAN will be easily divided.

Indonesia has a major role as “ASEAN Leader” to pursue an understanding with Laos—as the next ASEAN Summit host—to work together in the name of ASEAN as a community on maintaining South East Asia’s stability post Japan’s new defense policy and its relation to China. Indonesia’s diplomacy success to balance Japan’s military rising and China regional hegemonic vision toward Asia would possibly make Indonesia become the caretaker of South East Asia’s stability.

In the situation that Japanese government has to work harder, not only to convince the public domestically, but also the regional community, that their new defense policy will have significant contribution in maintaining security and order, welcoming an open dialogue and cooperation with its neighbors is a must. Indonesia through ASEAN must take this opportunity. This will help to convince that Japan’s new defense policy can produce the best possible future for the region, and help overcome fears of the past. When Japan and U.S. are opened to discuss and cooperate, China will likely modify its strategy and avoid the confrontation.

Indonesia has good opportunity in diplomacy, but not for our defense systems. Good diplomacy has to be guaranteed by good defense and military system. We still have some problems and threats regarding the military transformation issues in East Asia. Indonesia on the other hand has some paradoxes in its military defense systems. According to Evan Laksmana on his article “Paradox upon Defense Industry”, there are three paradoxical policies upon Indonesia’s defense systems. First, the paradox between primary consumer of Defense Industry’s (in this case, TNI) requirement with Defense State-owned Enterprise’s (BUMN-Pertahanan) objectives and expectations; second, paradox between BUMN empowerment strategy which drives on “techno-nationalism waves” and the uprising of regional “techno-globalists”; and third, paradox between Indonesia’s military budget enhancement and the degradation of Indonesia’s defense-BUMN. These three paradoxical conditions show that Indonesia is not well-prepared enough toward Japan’s new defense policy.

Indonesia should intensify its relations with Japan, China, and U.S. by economic cooperation and partnerships. ASEAN Free Trade mechanisms (ACFTA, ASEAN+, etc) and other economic partnerships and integration models such as TPP and/or RCEP would stabilize Japan, China, and U.S. influences in South East Asia. In fact, it even could regulate how Japan, China, and U.S. act each other. Economic partnership would be an opportunity for Indonesia as it can be used to cover our lacks on military power.

*) Postgraduate Program of International Relations Department, University of Indonesia. Forum for Academician of International Relations (FAIR), Universitas Riau

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