REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, Azhari Setiawan *)

The United States (US) Presidential Election of 2016 scheduled on 8 November 2016 will be the 58th quadrennial US Presidential Election. The US Election for US citizen in Indonesia will be held in three consular agencies in Jakarta, Surabaya, and Bali. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are taking place between 1 February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and US territories. This nominating process is also an indirect election where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee. The Iowa caucus result shows that from Republic Party, Ted Cruz (51.666; 27.6%) was leading after Donald Trump (45.427 votes; 24.3%), Marco Rubio (23.1%), and Ben Carson for 9.3% votes.

Democratic Caucus result was tight enough, which placed Hillary Clinton on the 1st position with 49.9%; 701 votes followed by Bernie Sanders with 697 votes; 49.6%.

As one of international politics constellation major actors, US election somewhat has its own implications for Indonesia. Considering Indonesia’s strategic position in Southeast Asia, US next president, for sure, will not let through Asia, ASEAN, and certainly Indonesia. Indonesia and US also have good relations for past decades.

There is no such a crucial conflict between both countries. Indonesia always becomes the US partner for democratization agenda in Asia and especially, Southeast Asia.

Obama’s peacekeeping diplomacy towards Muslim countries is a good sign for Indonesia as the largest Muslims community in the world.

A Good and sustainable diplomatic relation is started from common national interest and vision between countries. Certainly, the President figure who is expected by Indonesia is the candidate who can and will maintain this good relation and makes it sustainable and also suitable for Indonesia’s national interests.

Indonesia’s national interest could be figured out based on Donald E. Nuechterlein formulation. There are four basic national interests which can be described as follows: 1) defense interests: the protection of the nation-state and its citizens against the threat of physical violence directed from another state, and/or an externally inspired threat to its system of government; 2) economic interest: the enhancement of the nation state’s economic well-being in relations with other states; 3) world order interests: the maintenance of an international political and economic system in which the nation state may feel secure, and in which its citizen and commerce may operate peacefully outside its borders; and 4) ideological interests: the protection and furtherance of a set of values which the people of a nation-state share and believe to be universally good.

There are several important points to recognize what happened in global politics constellation along 2015 which also become Indonesia’s national interests focuses based on the national interests concept of Nuechterlein, they are: Arab awakening, democratization, global economic crisis, environmental issues, maritime vision, and also terrorism.

First, economic crisis has taken part in Indonesia’s first strategic policy. In Jokowi’s one year as president, inflation has climbed up due to high food prices (especially rice) and growth slowed due to declining competitiveness, difficult global conditions, and China’s deceleration, resulting in large layoffs of Indonesian factory workers.

Second, after economic crisis potential and US over production effect toward Indonesia, the next concern came from Middle East Awakening. We all know that Middle East is always complex and complicated. Multidimensional Conflicts in Middle East have threatened regional and global security. High rate of violence and Human Rights cases; ISIS survival and its latest attack in Paris last months ago; and lack of social justice in some authoritarian Arab governments have made extremism and radicalism growing time to time. Indonesia and Islam have a connection to the Middle East. Islamic State—which is not Islam and also not a state—is a big challenge for Indonesia as the country with the highest number of Muslim citizen to show the world our “moderate Islam” identity as the contribution on fighting against terrorism.

The third concern for world politics and Indonesia is Democratization. Indonesia is still on the stairway of transition to Democracy. Indonesia has been exploring the “Non-western Democracy”. Supports for the concept of non-Western democracy are becoming more voluble, widespread and determined.

The fourth concern is Maritime Axis Strategic Policy as Indonesia national interest which has been promoted by President Jokowi as one of his primary concern on security issue. In welcoming the integration of the “ASEAN Security Community 2015”, there appear many questions that need to be considered if we want to keep the independence of Indonesia in maintaining the leading edge and the outer region under the concept of regional integration. Geographically, the Malacca Strait is the largest international trade meeting point of various parts of the world marked by numerous "valuable" ships. Unfortunately, it has also been facilitating transnational crimes such as piracy and smuggling as well as terrorism. Geopolitically, the strait problem is divided into two term of issues, internal and external.

Geopolitical perspective shows that Malacca strait has many strategic values, especially economic values. So that, Indonesia has to optimize its military and diplomacy capability. On the other hand, geostrategic perspective shows that the main problem for Indonesia toward Malacca Strait is ownership and transnational security.

Indonesia needs to secure Malacca Straits as its national territory from external threats (transnational crime) and internal threats (ownership problem and West intervention).

These aspects could be the potential matter for both future diplomatic relations if both countries are in the same path and same vision. The candidate that is expected by Indonesia is the one who can advance the diplomatic relations by focusing on these strategic policy aspects. At least, the US next President has a deep and serious concern on one or two of these aspects and has an intention to place Indonesia as a partner country.

*) Postgraduate Program of International Relations Department, University of Indonesia

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