REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- The second round of Jakarta election was ended. Quick count result of some pollsters showed Anies Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno (Anies-Sandi) won the competition.
The election did not only impact the national politics, buat also national economic conditions. When the election run smoothly, said an economist from Institute for Development of Economics and Finance, Eko Listiyanto, there would be positive sentiment to the capital market and money market.
However, the sentiment would not be long lasting. He predicted it would end next week. While the impact on real and retail sectors were not significant.
"The impact of the first round (of election) was not significant. So does the second round," said Eko.
Increasing activities did not happened as an impact of the election, but as the holiday came. It encouraged people to make more spending in vacation, transportation, food and drinks consumption, clothes and others.
"So it was not because of the election. It was coincidentally held during long vacation," said him.
Another economist from SKHA Institute for Global Competitiveness (SIGC) Eric Sugandi also said Jakarta election did not signicantly impact the national economic growth in the first quartal of 2017.
The contributions to nonprofit institutions serving households (LNPRT) was small. Eric argued that the impact would be short, as market would accept whoever was elected.
Previously, after the trade closing on Tuesday (April 18) or a day before the election, composite stock price index (IHSG) rebounded to the level of 5,606. It increased 29 point or 0.5 percents. The index had been lower on Monday (April 17) to the level of 5.600
An economic analyst NH Korindo Bima Setiaji said the rebound was an indication that whoever became the winner, investors would have positive responds as Indonesian economic data showed better condition. Surplus on trade balance started to be more stable since last year. The foreign exchange continued to be more than 100 billion US dollar.
Related to stock market, an analyst of Binaartha Sekuritas, Reza Priyambada, said there was a phenomenon where the election impact the market. It was not impact the capital market.
Reza said the phenomenon occurred since the presidential election 2014. Economic, politics, and religious sentiment were mixed.
At that moment, capital and money markets trend move to positive. IHSG and rupiah was strengthening, seemed to be an impact of the election.
He predicted that the resukt of Jakarta election potentially move certain stocks, especially as the candidate's name related to the emiten. Sandiaga Uno, for example, was the pioneer of PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya Tbk (SRTG). People in the market believed that his victory would impact SRTG stocks and its emitent which affiliated to PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) and PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk. (TBIG). SRTG stocks had small liquidity and its movement was sideway.
As people in the market predicted Anies-Sandi would win, the stocks of SRTG and Saratoga Group would be strengthen. MNC Group stocks also predicted to strengthen as the Chairman and CEO Harry Tanoesoedibjo who served as the Chairman of Perindo Party supported the candidates.
The same phenomenon would also happened when Ahok-Djarot win the election. The stocks of PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) were predicted to strengthen as the reclamation projects would be continued.
"Maybe the banking stocks woukd be strengthen as reclamation needs more funding. It needed banks for financing," said Reza.